Systems and Methods for Probability-Based Prediction of Fatigue and Fatigue Risk


Fatigue is a safety risk in aviation because of performance deficits in flight crews that have been shown to be correlated with fatigue. At FedEx, owing to the around-the-clock and across-time-zones nature of its operations, the development of a science-based system for tracking and managing fatigue risk is critical for safe operations and operational flexibility going forward. To improve upon existing, proactively implemented fatigue-limiting scheduling policies, therefore, FedEx is developing science-based rostering and scheduling software to further minimize fatigue risk and enhance alertness in operations. This invention outlines the development process and discusses how model-based fatigue prediction will integrate into FedEx’s operational processes. Once validated and implemented, this model-based fatigue risk management approach is likely to improve both scheduling performance and flight safety.

Applications and Advantages 

This invention has applications that would improve scheduling and reduce fatigue in the commercial airline industry, shipping, long haul trucking, and other fields including the medical field.

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Punam Dalai
Technology Licensing Associate
Washington State University
Reference No: 1298-OIPA-OC


Hans Van Dongen
Suresh Rangan
Richard Lewis

Key Words